The Eurozone is structurally imbalanced and the Euro is doomed

Charles Hugh-Smith
OfTwoMinds

Papering over the structural imbalances in the Eurozone with endless bailouts will not resolve the fundamental asymmetries.

Beneath the permanent whatever it takes "rescue" by the European Central Bank (ECB) lie fundamental asymmetries that doom the euro, the joint currency that has been the centerpiece of European unity since its introduction in 1999.

The key imbalance is between export powerhouse Germany, which generates huge trade surpluses, and its trading partners, which run large trade and budget deficits, particularly Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

Those outside of Europe may be surprised to learn that Germany's exports are roughly equal to those of China ($1.2 trillion), even though Germany's population of 82 million is a mere 6% of China's 1.3 billion. Germany and China are the world's top exporters, while the U.S. trails as a distant third.

Germany's emphasis on exports places it in the so-called mercantilist camp, countries that depend heavily on exports for their growth and profits. Other (nonoil-exporting) nations that routinely generate large trade surpluses include China, Japan, Germany, Taiwan and the Netherlands.

While Germany's exports rose an astonishing 65% from 2000 to 2008, its domestic demand flatlined near zero. Without strong export growth, Germany's economy would have been at a standstill. The Netherlands is also a big exporter (trade surplus of $33 billion) even though its population is relatively tiny, at only 16 million.

The "consumer" countries, on the other hand, run large current-account (trade) deficits and large government deficits. Italy, for instance, has a $55 billion trade deficit and a budget deficit of about $110 billion. Total public debt is a whopping 115.2% of GDP.

Spain, with about half the population of Germany, has a $69 billion annual trade deficit and a staggering $151 billion budget deficit. Fully 23% of the government's budget is borrowed.

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Iran Officially Switches From Dollar To Euro

Zero Hedge

Just two weeks after "panic" hit the streets of Tehran as the Iranian government attempted to 'fix' the freefall of the Rial against the US Dollar...

 Middle East Monitor reports that Iran’s feud with the US is set to get worse after Tehran announced this week that it will start reporting foreign currency amounts in euros rather than US dollars, as part of the country’s effort to reduce its reliance on the American currency due to political tension with Washington. [...]

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Europe’s United Market is a ‘Project for the Business Establishment’

Sputnik

The euro currency is a major factor accelerating the process of economic and political disintegration within the European Union, according to Belgian left politician Peter Mertens.

The European Union is now “disintegrating,” Paul Magnette, Minister-President of the Belgian French-speaking region of Wallonia, said in a recent interview with L’Echo.

“We are nearing a process of political disintegration, with some countries becoming ungovernable,” the politician said.

Magnette also criticized the euro currency as poorly thought-out, which accelerated “social and financial deregulation.”

Magnette has been known as a vocal critic of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a free trade deal between the EU and Canada. In the interview, he also spoke out for withdrawal from the bloc of such countries as Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Hungary, following the Brexit example.

Magnette’s remarks are especially surprising, taking into account the fact that such criticism came from a left-wing and pro-European politician.

Peter Mertens, the leader of the Workers’ Party of Belgium, underscored that in Belgium criticism of the current state of European integration comes from left-wing political forces, not from the right, like in France or in the Netherlands.

“From the very beginning, the euro has been a problem. The currency was designed to serve the interests of Germany, Europe’s strongest economy. It was clear that the European united market was not people’s will. It was a project for the business establishment,” Mertens said in an interview with Sputnik French.

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Europe Proposes "Restrictions On Payments In Cash"

Zero Hedge

Having discontinued its production of EUR500 banknotes, it appears Europe is charging towards the utopian dream of a cashless society. Just days after Davos' elites discussed why the world needs to "get rid of currency," the European Commission has introduced a proposal enforcing "restrictions on payments in cash."

With Rogoff, Stiglitz, Summers et al. all calling for the end of cash - because only terrorists and drug-dealers need cash (nothing at all to do with totalitarian control over a nation's wealth) - we are not surprised that this proposal from the European Commission (sanctuary of statism) would appear...

The Commission published on 2 February 2016 a Communication to the Council and the Parliament on an Action Plan to further step up the fight against the financing of terrorism (COM (2016) 50). The Action Plan builds on existing EU rules to adapt to new threats and aims at updating EU policies in line with international standards. In the context of the Commission's action to extent the scope of the Regulation on the controls of cash entering or leaving the Community, reference is made to the appropriateness to explore the relevance of potential upper limits to cash payments.

The Action Plan states that "Payments in cash are widely used in the financing of terrorist activities… In this context, the relevance of potential upper limits to cash payments could also be explored. Several Member States have in place prohibitions for cash payments above a specific threshold."

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IMF admits disastrous love affair with the euro and apologises for the immolation of Greece

Comment: This is tragi-comedy. What this shows above anything else that the sheer stupidity of these people is beyond dispute. They were not informed?? Really? They're like spoilt children playing with people's lives. "Sorry, we destroyed a country and its its citizens. We'll do better next time and put in measures that ensure a country's wealth passes into our and the banking fraternity's coffers in a more civilised and less transparent way."

The IMF is an enabler and tool of neo-liberal economic policy thus it cannot be reformed. The only course of action is to erase it from existence as soon as humanly possible.

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Telegraph

 

“The possibility of a balance of payments crisis in a monetary union was thought to be all but non-existent,” it said. As late as mid-2007, the IMF still thought that “in view of Greece’s EMU membership, the availability of external financing is not a concern".

At root was a failure to grasp the elemental point that currency unions with no treasury or political union to back them up are inherently vulnerable to debt crises. States facing a shock no longer have sovereign tools to defend themselves. Devaluation risk is switched into bankruptcy risk.

“In a monetary union, the basics of debt dynamics change as countries forgo monetary policy and exchange rate adjustment tools,” said the report. This would be amplified by a “vicious feedback between banks and sovereigns”, each taking the other down. That the IMF failed to anticipate any of this was a serious scientific and professional failure.

In Greece, the IMF violated its own cardinal rule by signing off on a bailout in 2010 even though it could offer no assurance that the package would bring the country’s debts under control or clear the way for recovery, and many suspected from the start that it was doomed.

The organisation got around this by slipping through a radical change in IMF rescue policy, allowing an exemption (since abolished) if there was a risk of systemic contagion. “The board was not consulted or informed,” it said. The directors discovered the bombshell “tucked into the text” of the Greek package, but by then it was a fait accompli.

The IMF was in an invidious position when it was first drawn into the Greek crisis.  The Lehman crisis was still fresh. “There were concerns that such a credit event could spread to other members of the euro area, and more widely to a fragile global economy,” said the report.

The eurozone had no firewall against contagion, and its banks were tottering. The European Central Bank had not yet stepped up to the plate as lender of last resort. It was deemed too dangerous to push for a debt restructuring in Greece.

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Aangirfan: BREXIT - HALLIGAN, EVANS PRITCHARD

Aangirfan: BREXIT - HALLIGAN, EVANS PRITCHARD: LIAM HALLIGAN in The Telegraph writes that the case for Brexit remains strong According to Liam Halligan: 

1. The UK's £60bn trade deficit with the EU means powerful German auto producers, French wineries and Italian furniture-makers will make sure that Britain continues to trade with the EU.
2. In 1980, the EU accounted for over 30% of global GDP. 

Now, despite many more member states, the EU accounts for over 30%  of global GDP.

3. Brexit makes sense because 'Europe' isn't working. 

The EU today is slow-growing and tied up in red tape. 

The euro, which 'most economists' told us to join, is doing untold damage. 

Locked in a high-currency straitjacket, Greece and Spain are suffering 40-50% youth unemployment. 

Italy, having barely grown since the euro's 1999 launch, faces a major banking crisis. 

Unable to depreciate their currencies, such economies are being sacrificed on the altar of 'more Europe'.

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Varoufakis Slams Bailout #3 As "Greatest Macroeconomic Disaster In History" While Tsipras "Doesn't Eat Or Sleep"

Zero Hedge

In an rare convergence of Greek and German viewpoints, overnight former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told the BBC that "economic reforms imposed on his country by creditors are "going to fail", ahead of talks on a huge bailout. At the same time, Germany's most noted Eurosceptic, Hans-Werner Sinn, in an interview with the newspaper "Passauer Neue Presse" also earlier today warned that any new aid would be "totally worthless" and "would never come back."

In what was practically a race who can find harsher terms to describe the Greek bailout, Varoufakis said that Greece was subject to a programme that will "go down in history as the greatest disaster of macroeconomic management ever".

As reported yesterday, the German parliament approved the opening of negotiations of Greece's third €86 billion bailout when it rushed to vote through a bridge loan to Greece so the insolvent nation had some funds to repay the ECB's Monday debt maturity, as well as repay the roughly €2 billion for Greece is in default to the IMF. Of note was the jump in German MPs who voted "no" to 119 from just 32 in the February vote to extend the Greek bailout.

In a damning assessment, Varoufakis told the BBC's Mark Lobel: "This programme is going to fail whoever undertakes its implementation."

Asked how long that would take, he replied: "It has failed already."

He also said Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who has admitted that he does not believe in the bailout, had little option but to sign. "We were given a choice between being executed and capitulating. And he decided that capitulation was the ultimate strategy." 

Which also happens to be Varoufakis' biggest failure: his strategy was accurate and his math was correct that to Europe a Grexit would be far more expensive than keeping Greece in the Euro, however Europe was just as accurate in realizing Greece has no Plan B for its banking system as Greece had never prepared either a plan for a parallel currency nor how to obtain Debtor in Possession funding, which is what a bankrupt Greece would need - ostensibly either from China or Russia - to fund it in the interim period in which it was ending its tumultuous relationship with Europe. 

Understandably Greece did not want to push the Grexit line too hard for obvious reasons - it was all part of the "blame game" - however now that Germany itself has opened a Pandora's box it can't close ever again when it brought up the possibility of a temporary Grexit, Greece should most certainly prepare for the worst case the next time it has to rerun the entire bailout tragedy in 6-9 months, or perhaps sooner. 

However, none of this will be Varoufakis' problem any more - instead we hope his successor learns from Yanis' mistakes. And speaking of his successors, late yesterday Tsipras has announced a cabinet reshuffle, sacking several ministers who voted against the reforms in parliament this week. But he opted not to bring in technocrats or opposition politicians as replacements.

As a result, it now seems that Tsipras will preside over ministers who, like himself, harbor serious doubts about the reform program. Which is why we truly hope they are prepared to implement the missing Plan B when the time comes next. 

Finally, in what is perhaps the best anecdote about Greece right now, AFP reported that "embattled Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras eats and sleeps poorly and rarely manages to see his family, his mother told a tabloid on Saturday."

"Alexis lately does not eat, does not sleep, but he has no choice -- he has a debt to the people who put their faith in him," Aristi Tsipras, 73, told Parapolitika weekly.

"I rarely see him any more. He goes from the airport straight to parliament. He has no time to see his children, how can he see me?" Aristi Tsipras said.

"When we speak, I tell him to do the best for the country and take care of himself. He tells me not to worry, and that everything will be fine," she said.

Unfortunately it won't be, however that will only be revealed when not only the PM can "no longer eat or sleep", but the entire country of Greece, too. 

The Euro Is Finished: Reporter Catches First Glimpse of Drachma in Greece

The Daily Sheeple

With the situation rapidly deteriorating in Greece, many experts have predicted that Greece may be forced from the Euro. If that happens, then Greece will have to go through the lengthy and complicated process of creating a new currency, which would most likely carry the namesake of their pre-Euro currency, known as the “Drachma.” For now the Euro is still their official currency, but it seems that hasn’t stopped some financial institutions from jumping the gun.

A reporter for Bloomberg stayed at a hotel in Athens from June 28th to July 4th, but when they charged his Visa debit card, the online statement didn’t show his charge in Euros. Instead, it was recorded as “Drachma EQ.” Even stranger, it was in name only. The number of “Drachmas” he was charged was exactly the same as the number of Euros he would have paid. The reporter contacted the companies involved, which included Visa and Citigroup, and their representatives seemed genuinely confused by his statement. The next day, his financial statement went back to being listed in Euros. So far, neither company has offered an explanation for the “mistake” for lack of a better word.
 
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Greece votes no - Let the chaos begin...

Michael Snyder
The Economic Collapse

The result of the referendum in Greece is a great victory for freedom, but it is also threatens to unleash unprecedented economic chaos all across Europe. With almost all of the votes counted, it is being reported that approximately 61 percent of Greeks have voted "no" and only about 39 percent of Greeks have voted "yes". This is a much larger margin of victory for the "no" side than almost everyone was anticipating, and it represents a stunning rejection of European austerity. Massive celebrations have erupted on the streets of Athens and other major Greek cities, but the euphoria may not last long. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is promising that Greece will be able to stay in the euro, but that gives EU bureaucrats and the IMF a tremendous amount of power, because at this point the Greek government is flat broke. Without more money from the EU and the IMF, the Greek government will not be able to pay its bills and virtually all Greek banks will inevitably collapse. Meanwhile, the rest of Europe is about to experience a tremendous amount of pain as financial markets respond to the results of this referendum. The euro is already plummeting, and most analysts expect European bond yields to soar and European stocks to drop substantially when trading opens on Monday morning.

Personally, I love the fact that the Greek people decided not to buckle under the pressure being imposed on them by the EU and the IMF. But amidst all of the celebration, the cold, hard reality of the matter is that your options are extremely limited when you are out of money.

How is the Greek government going to pay its bills without any money?

How are the insolvent Greek banks going to operate without any money?

How is the Greek economy going to function without any money?

Now that the Greek people have overwhelmingly rejected the demands of the creditors, it will be very interesting to see what the EU and the IMF do. Prior to the referendum, European leaders were insisting that a "no" vote would put an end to negotiations and would force Greece to leave the euro.

Now that the results are in, are they going to change their tune? Because the ball is definitely in their court...

"This does two things: it legitimises the stance of the Greek government and it leaves the ball in Europe's court," ANZ Bank analysts said in a note.

"Europe either folds or Greece goes bankrupt; over to you Merkel."

So would they actually let Greece go bankrupt?

It is going to be fascinating to watch what happens over the next few days. Right now, Greek banks are on life support. If the European Central Bank decides to pull the plug, they would essentially destroy the entire Greek banking system. The only thing that can keep Greek banks alive and kicking is more intervention from the ECB. The following comes from the New York Times... 

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Greek debt crisis: Yanis Varoufakis resigns after being forced out by EU chiefs

The Independent

Yanis Varoufakis has announced he is standing down despite Greece's No vote in the referendum on proposed austerity measures. 

In a blog post entitled “Minister No More”, published on Monday morning, the Greek finance minister said he was standing down because of pressure from Greece’s European partners. 

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Nine myths about the Greek crisis

James K. Galbraith
Politico

The citizens of Greece face a referendum Sunday that could decide the survival of their elected government and the fate of the country in the Eurozone and Europe. Narrowly, they’re voting on whether to accept or reject the terms dictated by their creditors last week. But what’s really at stake? The answers aren’t what you’d think.

I have had a close view of the process, both from the US and Athens, after working for the past four years with Yanis Varoufakis, now the Greek finance minister. I’ve come to realize that there are many myths in circulation about this crisis; here are nine that Americans should see through.

1. The referendum is about the Euro. As soon as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced the referendum, François Hollande, David Cameron, Matteo Renzi, and the German Deputy Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel told the Greeks that a “no” vote would amount to Greece leaving the Euro. Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, went further: he said “no” means leaving the European Union. In fact the Greek government has stated many times that – yes or no – it is irrevocably committed to the Union and the Euro. And legally, according to the treaties, Greece cannot be expelled from either.
2. The IMF has been flexible. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde claims that her institution has shown “flexibility” in negotiations with the Greeks. In fact, the IMF has conceded almost nothing over four months: not on taxes, pensions, wages, collective bargaining or the amount of Greece’s debt. Greek chief negotiator Euclid Tsakalatos circulated a briefing on the breakdown that gives details, and concludes: “So what does the Greek government think of the proposed flexibility of the Institutions? It would be a great idea.”
3. The creditors have been generous. Angela Merkel has called the terms offered by the creditors “very generous” to Greece. But in fact the creditors have continued to insist on a crushing austerity program, predicated on a target for a budget surplus that Greece cannot possibly meet, and on the continuation of draconian policies that have already cost the Greeks more than a quarter of their income and plunged the country into depression. Debt restructuring, which is obviously necessary, has also been refused.
4. The European Central Bank has protected Greek financial stability. A central bank is supposed to protect the financial stability of solvent banks. But from early February, the ECB cut off direct financing of Greek banks, instead drip-feeding them expensive liquidity on special “emergency” terms. This promoted a slow run on the banks and paralyzed economic activity. When the negotiations broke down, the ECB capped the assistance, prompting a fast bank run and giving them an excuse to impose capital controls and effectively shut them down.
5. The Greek government is imperiling its American alliance. This is a particular worry of some US conservatives, who see a leftist government in power and assume it is pro-Russian and anti-NATO. It is true that the Greek Left has historic complaints against the US, notably for CIA support of the military junta that ruled from 1967 to 1974. But in fact, attitudes on the Greek Left have changed, thanks partly to experience with the Germans. This government is pro-American and firmly a member of NATO.
6. Alexis Tsipras called the IMF a “criminal” organization. That was, charitably, an overheated headline slapped by Bloomberg onto a very moderate parliamentary speech, which correctly pointed out that the IMF’s economic and debt projections for Greece back when austerity was first imposed in 2010 were catastrophically optimistic. In fact, every letter from Tsipras to the creditors has been couched in formal and respectful language.
7. The Greek government is playing games. Because Finance Minister Varoufakis knows the economic field of game theory, lazy pundits have for months opined that he is playing “chicken” or “poker” or some other game. In Heraklion two weeks ago, Varoufakis denied this as he has done many times: “We’re not bluffing. We’re not even meta-bluffing.” Indeed there are no hidden cards. The Greek red lines – the points of principle on which this government refuses to budge – on labor rights, against cuts in poverty-level pensions and fire-sale privatizations – have been in plain view from day one.
8. A “Yes” vote will save Europe. “Yes” would mean more austerity and social destruction, and the government that implements it cannot last long. The one that follows will not be led by Alexis Tsipras and Yanis Varoufakis – the last leaders, perhaps anywhere in Europe, of an authentic pro-European left. If they fall, the anti-Europeans will come next, possibly including ultra-right elements such as the Greek Nazi party, Golden Dawn. And the anti-European fire will spread, to France, the UK and Spain, among other countries.
9. A “No” vote will destroy Europe. In fact, only the “No” can save Greece – and by saving Greece, save Europe. A “No” means that the Greek people will not bend, that their government will not fall, and that the creditors need, finally, to come to terms with the failures of European policy so far. Negotiations can then resume – or more correctly, proper negotiations can then start. This is vital, if Europe is to be saved. If there ever was a moment when the United States should speak for decency and democratic values – as well as our national interest – it is right now.

James K. Galbraith holds the Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in Government/Business Relations at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, the University of Texas at Austin. He has followed the Greek drama in Greece, Brussels, Paris and Berlin since January. His most recent book is “The End of Normal: The Great Crisis and the Future of Growth.”

Greece crisis: Athens poised on the verge of catastrophic debt default as bailout talks collapse

The Independent

The world’s financial markets are facing up to the possibility that Greece could soon become the first country to crash out of Europe’s single currency. Talks between Athens and its eurozone creditors have collapsed in acrimony just days before a final deadline for Greece to unlock the €7.2bn (£5.2bn) in bailout funds it needs to avoid a catastrophic debt default.

The Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, accused the creditor powers of hidden “political motives” in their demands that Greece make further cuts to public pension payments in return for the financial aid. “We are shouldering the dignity of our people, as well as the hopes of the people of Europe,” Mr Tsipras said in a defiant statement. “We cannot ignore this responsibility. This is not a matter of ideological stubbornness. This is about democracy.”

Günther Oettinger, a European Commissioner and member of the German Chancellor’s ruling Christian Demorcrat party, hit back –suggesting Greece could soon be designated an “emergency area” if it fails to pay its debts later this month.

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James Petras: The assassination of Greece

"The European economic crash of 2008/09 resounded worst on its weakest links – Southern Europe and Ireland. The true nature of the European Union as a hierarchical empire, in which the powerful states – Germany and France – could openly and directly control investment, trade, monetary and financial policy was revealed. The much vaunted EU “bailout” of Greece was in fact the pretext for the imposition of deep structural changes. These included the denationalization and privatization of all strategic economic sectors; perpetual debt payments; foreign dictates of incomes and investment policy. Greece ceased to be an independent state: it was totally and absolutely colonized."

James Petras
Voltaire Network

The Greek government is currently locked in a life and death struggle with the elite which dominate the banks and political decision-making centers of the European Union. What are at stake are the livelihoods of 11 million Greek workers, employees and small business people and the viability of the European Union. If the ruling Syriza government capitulates to the demands of the EU bankers and agrees to continue the austerity programs, Greece will be condemned to decades of regression, destitution and colonial rule. If Greece decides to resist, and is forced to exit the EU, it will need to repudiate its 270 billion Euro foreign debts, sending the international financial markets crashing and causing the EU to collapse.

The leadership of the EU is counting on Syriza leaders abandoning their commitments to the Greek electorate, which as of early February 2015, is overwhelmingly (over 70%) in favor of ending austerity and debt payments and moving forward toward state investment in national economic and social development [1]. The choices are stark; the consequences have world-historical significance. The issues go far beyond local or even regional, time-bound, impacts. The entire global financial system will be affected [2].

The default will ripple to all creditors and debtors, far beyond Europe; investor confidence in the entire western financial empire will be shaken. First and foremost all western banks have direct and indirect ties to the Greek banks [3]. When the latter collapse, they will be profoundly affected beyond what their governments can sustain. Massive state intervention will be the order of the day. The Greek government will have no choice but to take over the entire financial system . . . the domino effect will first and foremost effect Southern Europe and spread to the 'dominant regions' in the North and then across to England and North America [4]. 

To understand the origins of this crises and alternatives facing Greece and the EU, it is necessary to briefly survey the political and economic developments of the past three decades. We will proceed by examining Greek and EU relations between 1980 - 2000 and then proceed to the current collapse and EU intervention in the Greek economy. In the final section we will discuss the rise and election of Syriza, and its growing submissiveness in the context of EU dominance, and intransigence, highlighting the need for a radical break with the past relationship of 'lord and vassal'.

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Alan Greenspan: "Greece Will Leave The Eurozone" And "There Is No Way That I Can Conceive Of The Euro Continuing"

Comment: How this guy can have the audacity to make a public comment at all after being one of the architects of a disastrous US economic policy defies belief. Nonetheless, he's right, for what it's worth. 

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Zero Hedge

"Greece will leave the Eurozone. I don't see that it helps Greece to be in the Euro, and I certainly don't see that it helps the rest of the Eurozone. It's just a matter of time before everyone recognizes that parting is the best strategy.... The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing."

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Will Spain Default?

Zero Hedge

With 10Y yields trading below those of US Treasuries, asking the question of Spain's rising default risk seems risible but as Bloomberg's Maxime Sbaihi notes, the longer the euro flirts with deflation, the higher the risk that the heavily indebted (and becoming more so) countries will be tempted to default. Of course, this 'concern' is entirely ignored by the 'market' as Draghi has promised enough liquidity to soak up every short-dated bond but as the European Union's so-called "1/20 rule" suggests - requiring states to reduce excessive (over 60% Debt/GDP) by 1/20th every year or face a fine of 0.2% of GDP - Spain, it appears has 5 options to escape this vicious circle... and one of those is restructuring...

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Europe has an even bigger crisis on its hands than a British exit

The Telegraph

If Europe’s policy elites could not quite believe it before, they must now know beyond much doubt that they have lost Britain. This island is no longer part of the European project in any meaningful sense.

British defenders of the status quo were knouted on Sunday. UKIP won 27.5pc of the vote, or 29pc after adjusting for the negligence - or worse - of the Electoral Commission in allowing a spoiler party with much the same name to sow confusion. Margaret Thatcher’s Tory children are scarcely more friendly to the EU enterprise.

Britain’s decision to stay out of monetary union at Maastricht sowed the seeds of separation, as pro-Europeans fully understood at the time, though almost nobody expected EMU officialdom to clinch the argument so emphatically by running the currency bloc into the ground with 1930s Gold Standard policies and youth unemployment levels above 50pc in Spain and Greece, and above 40pc in Italy.

European leaders must henceforth calculate that the British people will vote to leave the EU altogether unless offered an entirely new dispensation: tariff-free access to the single market along lines already enjoyed by Turkey or Tunisia; and deliverance from half the Acquis Communautaire, that 170,000-page edifice of directives and regulations that drains away sovereignty, and is never repealed.

Ideological hardliners would prefer to see Britain leave rather tolerating any reversal of the one-way Monnet Doctrine, and some talk of shutting British goods out of the European markets. They are fanatics. Others know that the EU’s global credibility would be shattered if one of its largest states - and twin-leader in projecting military power - were to walk away in disgust, as Germany’s Wolfgang Schauble has repeatedly warned.

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Merkel and Sarkozy’s “Dinner” becomes cult net hit

Euro News

A German reworking of a 1960s British comedy sketch has become an internet hit.

The original Dinner for One is already cult viewing on New Year’s Eve in Germany and many Scandinavian countries.

In the new version, renamed “the 90th Euro Rescue Summit or Euros for No-one,” the heads of Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel have been superimposed on the 18-minute film’s two characters.

Merkel plays the original 90-year-old Miss Sophie in assuming her friends are there but talks of the former Greek and Spanish prime ministers. She also reprimands an absent British prime minister saying that German would be spoken at the table.

And true to the original, Sarkozy the butler ends up worse for wear having drunk for all his mistress’ guests, and then he is warned by Merkel to think about his credit rating!

Former Fed Vice President Tells CNBC That Bernanke Is Secretly Bailing Out Europe

Daily Bail

CNBC Video - Gerald O'Driscoll - Dec. 28, 2011

O'Driscoll is the former vice-president of the Dallas Fed and is currently a senior fellow at the Cato Institute.  Inside we have included an excerpt from his WSJ op-ed.

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Mega Fail: 17 Signs European Financial System Heading For An Implosion Of Historic Proportions

Europe and the US are obviously embedded in the same corrupt financial architecture, so whether Europe or the US goes first the whole pack of cards is coming down.

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The Economic Collapse Blog

What happens when you attempt a cold shutdown of one of the biggest debt spirals that the world has ever seen?  Well, we are about to find out.  The politicians in Europe have decided that they are going to "take their medicine" and put strict limits on budget deficits.  They have also decided that the European Central Bank is not going to engage in reckless money printing to "paper over" the debts of troubled nations.  This may all sound wonderful to many of you, but the reality is that there is always a tremendous amount of pain whenever a massive debt spiral is interrupted.  Just look at what happened to Greece.  Greece was forced to raise taxes and implement brutal austerity measures.  That caused the economy to slow down and tax revenues to decline and so government debt figures did not improve as much as anticipated.  So Greece was forced to implement even more brutal austerity measures.  Well, that caused the economy to slow down even more and tax revenues declined again.  In Greece this cycle has been repeated several times and now Greece is experiencing a full-blown economic depression.  100,000 businesses have closed and a third of the population is living in poverty.  But now Germany and France intend to impose the "Greek solution" on the rest of Europe.  This is going to create the conditions needed for a "perfect storm" to develop and it means that the European financial system is heading for an implosion of historic proportions.

The easiest way to deal with a debt spiral is to let it keep going and going.  That is what the United States has done.  Sure, "kicking the can down the road" makes the crisis much worse in the long run, but bringing the pain into the present is not a lot of fun either.

Europe has decided to do something that is unprecedented in the post-World War II era.  They have decided to put very strict limits on budget deficits and to impose tough sanctions on any nations that break the rules.  They have also decided that they are not going to allow the European Central Bank to fund the debts of troubled nations with reckless money printing.

Without a doubt, this is a German solution for a German-dominated Europe.  Germany does not want to pay for the debt mistakes of other EU nations, and so they are shoving bitter austerity down the throats of those that have gotten into too much debt.

But this solution is not going to be implemented without a massive amount of pain.

In fact, this solution is going to make a massive financial collapse much more likely.  The following are 17 signs that the European financial system is heading for an implosion of historic proportions.... 

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Demise of the Euro: Part of a Long-term Plan for a Global "Super-currency" controlled by the Banksters

RT

Adrian Salbuchi

Efforts by European leaders to shoe-horn a range of diverse countries into a rigid financial cage are doomed to fail. But that’s all part of a long-term plan for a global super-currency which can only bring more hardship to ordinary working people.

A question that more and more people are asking nowadays is, “What on Earth were the Europeans thinking when they agreed to have just one currency for all of Europe?” 

In Greek mythology, Procrustes was the son of Poseidon, God of the deep blue seas. He built an iron bed of a size that suited him, and then forced everybody who passed by his abode to lie on it. If the passerby was shorter than his bed, then Procrustes would stretch him, breaking bones, tendons and sinews until the victim fitted; if he was taller, then Procrustes would chop off feet and limbs until the victim was the “right” size…

This ancient story of “one size fits all” seems to have made its 21st Century comeback when Europeans were coaxed into imposing upon themselves an oxymoron; a blatant and conceptual contradiction they call “the euro”.

This common supranational currency invented by the French and Germans, boycotted by the UK, ignored by the Swiss, managed by the Germans and accepted by the rest of Europe in blissful ignorance, has finally dropped its mask to reveal its ugly face: an impossible mechanism that only serves the elite bankers but not the working people. 

It masked gross contradictions as large, far-reaching and varied as the relative sizes, strengths, profiles, styles, histories, econometrics, labor policies, pension plans, industries, and human and natural resources of the 17 eurozone nations, ranging from Germany and France at one end of the scale, to Greece, Portugal and Ireland at the other.

As we said in a recent article, the euro carries an expiry date; perhaps the eurocrats who were its midwives a decade ago expected that it would live a little longer, maybe even come of age… But they certainly knew that, sooner or later, the euro would die; that it was meant to die. 

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