Modernising the military is one of China’s four pillars in its
modernisation drive which includes education, industry and
infrastructure, military and agriculture.
China’s largest strategic concern – regime survival and domestic
stability - directly links to its economy. To sustain its economic
growth China has to be depending increasingly on its external supply of
energy, raw materials and food. So the development of Sea Line of
Communication or (SLOCs) is vitally important as more than 80% of
China’s trade go through the sea. The majority of the energy comes from
the country’s coal about 65 %, 30% by oil and remaining by gas, nuclear
and hydroelectric power.
China used to be the largest oil exporter in East Asia but in 1993 it
became a net importer and in 2004, overtook Japan to become the world’s
second largest importer. By 2020 an estimated 60% of the country’s oil
has to be imported compared to 8% in 1995. Also to be noted is that over
65% of China’s oil import came from the Middle East and Africa.
The
choke-point of Straits of Malacca is considered too risky for China
because if there will be a collision near its narrowest point in
Singapore it will disrupt the traffic flow by up to 2 weeks to China. So
if there is a disruption of deliveries then China’s economy will be in a
total standstill. So China knows the importance of protecting its SLOCs
so that the oil supply from the Middle East remains uninterrupted.
Free Rider
Currently such protection is provided by the United States Navy in
the form of permanent deployment of an aircraft carrier in the Gulf
region. China currently enjoys being a ‘free rider’ meaning China gets
free protection from the U.S Navy without having to pay for it.
However, for the past few years the U.S has already been cutting back
its defence budget plus more oil has since been discovered recently,
hence making the U.S less dependent on Middle Eastern oil in the future.
Sooner or later the U.S will have to scale back its commitment to
provide security to the shipping lanes in the Middle East.
Hence, by then China will then need to commit more resources towards
maintaining security of the shipping lanes in the Middle East. Below is
the map of China’s SLOC and the oil shipping lanes from Hainan Island
China till the Middle East.
Picture courtesy of FAS (Federation Of American Scientist)
Shows the Hainan Island Naval base with Jin Class SSBN and Cave Entrance
Click to enlarge
String of Pearls Strategy
This gave rise to the String of Pearls strategy. It is like pearls
tied to a string and each pearl represents a country normally a port
where China can get access to it. The string that attach to the pearls
represents the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs). The String of Pearls
will provide China with forward presence and military bases along the
SLOCs from China to the Persian Gulf in the Middle East. A pearl
normally comes with facilities like airstrips and naval bases.
The First Pearl is located at the Hainan Island in South China. The
Chinese have already upgraded the naval base and military facilities.
This massive underground submarine and warship base is built because of
its strategic location in the South China Sea. The entrance is so huge
that it can allow the fleet of 50 plus conventional and nuclear
submarines to go in and out without Western spy satellites detecting.
The Second Pearl is the port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka despite much
objection from India. However the project is already under way and China
is underwriting a US$1.2 billion package for the facility. China
investment in this area will increase significantly as it has some
interest in oil drilling in Northeast Sri Lanka. Hambantota port will
also include aviation fuel storage facility, LNG refinery and a
bunkering facility to refuel ships.
The Third Pearl is located at the Chittagong port in Bangladesh.
Fourth is the Woody Island located 300 miles east of the Paracel
Archipelago. An airstrip has been upgraded for this purpose. And so does
Port of Sittwe in Myanmar, Marao in the Maldives and Port of Gwadar in
Pakistan. The Gwadar port comes with a naval base and it is is chosen
because of its strategic value in the 240 km distance from the Straits
of Hormuz.
In its Grand Strategy that encompassed the ‘Peace Development’, China
has identified 3 stages in development spanning 50 years. This involves
both the economic and military. In the first stage of development from
2000-2010 China hopes to double its GDP and upgrade its Navy from ‘Green
Water’ to ‘Blue Water’ and operate within the First Island Chain that
stretch from Japan to Philippines , has been achieved.
The second stage from 2010-2020 with total GDP to be double and the
development of the ‘Aircraft Carrier’ fleet of up to six carriers
groups, to operate beyond the First Island Chain to reach the Second
Island Chain which stretch from Guam to Indonesia and Australia is
already on target with the recent commissioning of its first Aircraft
Carrier, The Liaoning.
And finally, from 2020-2050 to catapult the nation to the middle rung
of the Advanced Nations and with its Navy upgraded to a truly ‘World
class Blue Water’ which can project power forward in all Oceans of the
World. With a doctrine change from a inward looking to a outlook one,
China’s Foreign policy has to be a more outward looking with global
influence.
India complained to the US that China’s String of Pearls strategy is
more of a strategic than commercial and the String of Pearls is
encircling it from north to south. And also it feel very uneasy because a
few of the pearls are India‘s old foe like Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Thus
all these developments represent China’s rising geopolitical influence
through ports and airstrips and also building diplomatic relations from
Hainan Island to Persian Gulf. This also acts as a strategy to cut off
US influence in this part of the world and also to contain India’s
influence in this area. The following map shows how China’s String of
Pearls encircle India and the rest of South Asia.
The
Second String of Pearls is taking shape in the Pacific Ocean. China
already had a strong presence in the Pacific Islands ever since there is
a power vacuum left by the French and the Americans. China’s CHECKBOOK
diplomacy did a marvellous job and it helped most of the Pacific Island
nations to pay off their debts with no strings attached. Unlike Western
aid which comes with a whole list of conditions like human rights,
transparency, opening up of market and etc.
The following are the reasons why China putting so much importance in this area,
> One China policy
> To counter U.S forces from Guam & Hawaii in case of future confrontation
> Strategic positioning of the Pacific
Taiwan has been lobbying the Pacific Nations to recognize it as a
country and for a vote in the UN. It was doing this quite successfully
for a while with nations like Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Tuvalu , Marshall
Islands, and the Solomon Islands. In return Taiwan will provide aid to
them. China came into the scene and counter offered them and eventually
of the 24 nations only 6 left that is still loyal to Taiwan. China not
only provides aids to them but also build infrastructure like roads,
schools and government buildings for them.
China already import significant amount of timber and fishes from
Papua New Guinea and Solomon islands. China also has an interest in
Papua New Guinea’s vast energy and mineral resources through interest in
the Ramu Nickel and Cobalt mine. It is reported there are more than
1000 SOEs doing more than $10 billion in business there last year
besides providing a market for Chinese goods.
The Pacific Islands lie between the equator and International Date
Line makes it an ideal location for satellite tracking. Kiribati is the
only country falls into this category and China in 1997 built a
satellite tracking station on the Tarawa atoll. The Tarawa station is
also important as it can be used to launch and track rockets (either
nuclear warheads or satellites) and also for monitoring US Navy and
military installations in the Pacific. This station also played a big
role in China’s first-manned space mission and also its future lunar
mission. However after suffered some bad diplomatic relations the
installation had to be removed.
The third String of Pearls is likely be the African Continent since
more than 20% of China’s oil imports come from that region. According to
sources, Swakopmund in Namibia currently accommodate China’s third
overseas satellite and space telemetry tracking station after the
closure of the Tarawa base, is likely be the first pearl. Next will be
the other African Nations on the east coast of Africa. The Port of
Hambantota in Sri Lanka which has bunkering facilities for ship refuel
and supplies provide a perfect docking point for Chinese ships on the
way to Africa.
In Conclusion
The development of the Strings of Pearl can be seen as part of
China’s ambitious plan to consolidate and tighten its grip on Global
power projection.
This whole game plan can be seen as part of a strategy that derives
from the centuries old Chinese board game called Wei Qi also known as GO
in the West.
The objective of this game is to move as many pieces of his stone
(either black or white) towards the opponent side. In a way it
surrounded the opponent with many scattered pieces and then consolidates
his position in one or two areas where it will be used for the final
push to finish off his opponent.
Thus if observed from another angle, China today can be seen as a
giant Wei Qi board, where the pieces represents the Chinese SOEs (State
Owned Enterprises) and private Chinese investors be it local or
Overseas Chinese or rather known as the Bamboo Network that has spread
their wings in all four corners of the Earth.
They are starting to move their pieces (investments) and scattering
all over the world.
Although their move might be sporadic at the moment
but in time they will be able to achieve economies of scale and move
into areas that shows signs of economic boom quickly. Their strategic
locations will give them a head start over any would be competitors in
terms of presence and integration into the local economy.
The following map best illustrates China’s strategic move by
scattering its SOEs around the world where it can be used to capitalize
on any positive economic development arising from the different parts of
the world.
As seen above China has already made its maiden move to scatter its
SOEs around the world and in time it will move into specific areas that
offer the best opportunity to further strengthen its influence.
In a way the development of the String of Pearls complements China’s future Global economic expansion. - Malaysia Chronicle
