The real story behind the Russia-Ukraine war — and what happens next

David Stockman | International Man

Notwithstanding the historic fluidity of borders, there is no case whatsoever that Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was "unprovoked" and unrelated to NATO's own transparent provocations in the region.

The details are arrayed below, but the larger issue needs be addressed first.

Namely, is there any reason to believe that Russia is an expansionist power looking to gobble up neighbors which were not integral parts of its own historic evolution, as is the case with Ukraine?

After all, if despite Rubio's treachery President Trump does manage to strike a Ukraine peace and partition deal with Putin you can be sure that the neocons will come charging in with a false Munich appeasement analogy.

The answer, however, is a resounding no!

Our firm rebuke of the hoary Munich analogy as it has been falsely applied to Putin is based on what might be called the double-digit rule. To wit, the true expansionary hegemons of modern history have spent huge parts of their GDP on defense because that's what it takes to support the military infrastructure and logistics required for invasion and occupation of foreign lands.

For instance, here are the figures for military spending by Nazi Germany from 1935-1944 expressed as a percent of GDP. This is what an aggressive hegemon looks like in the ramp-up to war: German military spending had already reach 23% of GDP, even before its invasion of Poland in September 1939 and its subsequent commencement of actual military campaigns of invasion and occupation.

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Poland, Slovakia, Hungary Defy EU By Keeping Bans On Ukraine Imports

ZeroHedge

 

A new European Union deal to liberalize trade with Ukraine took effect Wednesday, but Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are defying it, maintaining their protectionist bans on imports from the country. Their defiance comes amid mounting grievances over EU prioritization of the West's proxy war on Russia over the prosperity of EU member states and their citizens.

Approved on Oct 13, the new EU arrangement expands tariff-free Ukrainian access to European markets, replacing a temporary lowering of trade barriers adopted after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. "We believe (the agreement) is a stable, fair framework, that can be reliable both for the EU and for Ukraine, to ensure a gradual integration in our single market, while providing stable trade flows," said European Commission spokeswoman Ariana Podesta. The European Commission (EC) is the EU's principal executive branch.

Rebelling against the Brussels regime, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia say they will maintain the bans on agricultural imports from Ukraine they put in place in 2023. The three countries' bans were a reaction to a wartime glut of Ukrainian products, which resulted from Black Sea ports being disrupted by the war with Russia. The glut sank prices and hammered domestic producers.

 

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EU Declares War On Its Own Members

Simplicus The Thinker

Yesterday, two near-simultaneous acts of sabotage saw explosions ripping through oil refineries in both Hungary and Romania. In Hungary it was the MOL in Százhalombatta, which reportedly receives Russian oil, while in Romania the Petrotel-Lukoil, a subsidiary of the Russian parent company.

As one commentator writes, these attacks came literally hours after the European Council had just approved to ban Russian gas starting in 2026:

The timing here is exceptionally curious because this attack came just hours after the European Council essentially locked in its position to almost completely ban Russian gas imports, with new contracts being outlawed at the beginning of 2026, and all long term contracts forcibly expiring in 2028. A similar ban on oil imports is expected in the near future. Hungary and Slovakia have pledged to issue legal challenges to the ban.

As of this writing, there were reports that a new explosion lit up a refinery in Bratislava, Slovakia—which allegedly processes Russian oil from the Druzhba pipeline. But subsequent follow-ups appear to show these were fake—though it’s as of yet uncertain.

The real attacks on Romania and Hungary came just days after Europe essentially gave carte blanche for terror attacks across the EU by way of several top European officials openly condoning not only the Nord Stream attacks, but even attacks against Hungarian oil pipelines. Here Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski addresses Hungary’s Peter Szijjarto:

  

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US Troops Arrive In Poland; Russia Sees It As An Act of Aggression

Anthony Brian Logan

Early in January 2017, around 3,500 United States troops arrived in Poland via Germany. Their mission in Poland is to prevent Russian aggression upon Poland and also the former Soviet states that border Russia such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, and even to certain extent - Ukraine. Even though Russia has successfully annexed majority ethnic Russian Crimea. On the other hand, Russia sees the action by the United States as a provocation. Something that will further strain diplomatic relations between the US and Russia.

One thing that is for sure… the timing of this event is questionable. Barack Obama is still the President of the United States until January 20th, just 8 days after the story was officially published on many news outlets in the United States. Donald Trump is the opposite of Obama and will become President when Obama leaves. He has repeatedly stressed the importance of building stronger diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia. So he will be left with the task of either reversing this troop advancement or simply managing it, which of course, will be very difficult either way.

The best outcome for this entire situation is if the United States withdraws troops from that region. Being a globo-cop (global cop) may benefit a country if they request the help of the United States, but other countries may not feel the same way if they are on the opposing side of said “help.” If Russia becomes provoked enough, a war between the United States and Russia could theoretically break out. That would signal World War 3 and a phenomenon known as “M.A.D.” or “mutually assured destruction.” A planetary disaster bad for all of humanity. Worst case scenario, that happens. Best case scenario, this can be cleaned up and fixed by Trump alongside his new administration.

See also:  U.S. Foreign Policy and the Campaign to Destabilize the Trump Presidency
 

The US-NATO Military Buildup on Russia’s Doorstep is Part of a Global Warfare Strategy

Interview with Michel Chossudovsky

By Prof Michel Chossudovsky and Press TV

NATO has launched massive war-games in Poland, weeks ahead of a security summit in Warsaw.

The Anaconda-16 is the biggest-ever military exercise by the Western military alliance in Poland since the end of the Polish People’s Republic in 1989. More than 31000 soldiers from 19 states as well as five NATO partner countries including Macedonia, Georgia and Ukraine will participate in the drills.

It will also involve over 100 aircraft, 12 naval vessels and some three-thousand armored vehicles.

The war-games will last 10 days at major bases across Poland. Drills also are being staged by NATO forces in the Baltic States.

The military alliance has recently unveiled plans to significantly increase its forces in Eastern Europe. Moscow says any presence of NATO troops close to its borders is a threat to its security.

Weaponizing the crosshairs: Putin foiling NATO plans to protect Romania, Poland from Iran

Rob Slane
TheBlogMire

At a recent ceremony in Deveselu, Romania, the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System (AAMDS) was declared operationally certified — a key milestone in Phase II of the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA). According to U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa/U.S. 6th Fleet Public Affairs:

This Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) System represents a significant increase in the capability to defend NATO European territory from attacks originating outside the Euro-Atlantic area, and is a key milestone in the development of NATO Ballistic Missile Defense.

If you happen to live in Romania, this is of course great news, since it means that your country is now fully protected from attack by Iran. This is especially critical for the security of Romania because, as is widely known, Iran, just like Saddam Hussein's Iraq, possesses a variety of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), which can be unleashed at 45 minutes notice. What is especially pleasing to me, as an Englishman married to a Polish lady, is that Poland is also on its way to introducing the system on its territory, and the knowledge of a system protecting my in-laws from President Hassan Rouhani's burning desire to seize control of Lower Silesia is bound to make me sleep soundly.

Or at least it would, but for those pesky Russians again and their unlimited propensity for unbridled aggression. What is it with them? Though the Aegis system is so clearly intended to protect Europe against the Iranian menace, sadly the government of the Russian Federation seems to have got the idea that it is actually directed at them. They have expressed, on numerous occasions, fears that the system is intended to neutralise their ability to withstand and retaliate against an invasion, that it can also be used as an offensive weapon to attack the Russian Federation, and that it is therefore a grave threat to their national security.

It is of course a groundless assumption. What possible reason would Russia have for thinking that the United States/NATO would want to aim such a system at them? Why, except for reneging on the promise not to move NATO East of Germany, an unprecedented propaganda and demonization campaign against the country and its leader, the placing of 1000s of troops right up to its border, the imposition of unlawful and unjustified sanctions aimed at crippling the country, and the policy of fomenting regime change in countries within its sphere of influence — apart from all that, where on earth did Russia ever get the idea that the West wanted to attack, destroy and Balkanise it, and that the systems in Romania and Poland are a part of this plan? Paranoid or what!

So instead of accepting the repeated assurances that the system is aimed at preventing Iran's planned conquest of Europe, Mr Putin has instead used this harmless system as a pretext for yet further aggression:

"At the moment the interceptor missiles installed have a range of 500 kilometers, soon this will go up to 1000 kilometers, and worse than that, they can be rearmed with 2400km-range offensive missiles even today, and it can be done by simply switching the software, so that even the Romanians themselves won't know...If yesterday people simply did not know what it means to be in the crosshairs in those areas of Romania, then today we will be forced to carry out certain measures to ensure our security. And it will be the same with Poland."

Did you hear that correctly? Poor Romania and poor Poland. They were only trying to do their bit to protect themselves and Europe from Iran's huge arsenal of WMDs, and lo and behold they end up with "aggressive Russian" missiles pointing directly at them!

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Putin gives grave warning to Romania and Poland against installing NATO's ABM missiles, "no one is listening"

Eric Zeusse
Sott.net

On Friday, May 27th, Russia's President Vladimir Putin again said that American President Barack Obama lies when saying that the reason America's anti-ballistic missile ("ABM") or Ballistic Missile Defense ("BMD") system is being installed in Romania, and will soon be installed in Poland, is to protect Europe from Iranian missiles that don't even exist and that Obama himself says won't exist because of Obama's deal with Iran. Putin is saying: I know that you are lying there, not being honest. You're aiming to disable our retaliatory capacity here, not Iran's. I'm not so dumb as to believe so transparent a lie as your assurances that this is about Iran, not about Russia.

Putin says that ABMs such as America is installing, disable a country's (in this case, Russia's) ability to retaliate against a blitz invasion — something increasingly likely from NATO now as NATO has extended right up to Russia's very borders — and that Russia will not allow this disabling of Russia's retaliatory forces. 

He said that "NATO fends us off with vague statements that this is no threat to Russia ... that the whole project began as a preventive measure against Iran's nuclear program. Where is that program now? It doesn't exist. ... We have been saying since the early 2000s that we will have to react somehow to your moves to undermine international security. No one is listening to us."

In other words, he is saying that the West is ignoring Russia's words, and that therefore Russia will, if this continues, respond by eliminating the ABM sites before they become fully operational. To do otherwise than to eliminate any fully operational ABM system on or near Russia's borders would be to leave the Russian people vulnerable to a blitz attack by NATO, and this will not be permitted.  

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Poland Refuses To Accept Any Refugees "As They Pose A Threat To Security", Will Not Comply With European "Blackmail"

Comment: This is what the fracturing of the European Union looks like ...

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Zero Hedge

Seemingly unfazed by the recent European Commission proposal to punish countries which refuse to comply with "fair" refugee allocation quotas with fines as high as €250,000 per asylum seeker, the head of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party and former PM Jaroslaw Kaczynski said that no refugees will be accepted in Poland "as they pose a threat to security" adding that Poland will oppose any law forcing EU members to pay €250,000 per refused refugee.

"Such a decision would abolish the sovereignty of EU member states – of course, the weaker ones. We don’t agree to that, we have to oppose that, because we are and we will be in charge in our own country,” Kaczynski said adding that "this is the position of the prime minister and the whole of PiS… From the beginning we felt that this issue should be resolved, assisting refugees outside the EU."

Others agreed. The Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said last week that the quota system is “a bad system...it makes no sense."

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